Wanhua Chemical (600309) follow-up comments: MDI price increases continue to catalyze leading technology, parks, and integration advantages have long-term benefits
Event: The company issued an announcement. Starting in April, the listed MDI distribution market price in China was 17,800 yuan / ton (up 2600 yuan / ton from March prices), and the direct market price was 18,300 yuan / ton (up 2800 yuan from March prices/ Ton) / ton); pure MDI listing price of 26,200 yuan / ton (up from 1,500 yuan / ton in March).
Main points: 1.
MDI raised prices again, Q2 overhaul and Q3 peak season, the price is expected to be strong. Following February 3, 2019, the company’s aggregated MDI distribution market in China increased by 700 夜来香体验网 and 2,000 yuan / ton, respectively, and rose by 2600 yuan / ton in April.To 17,800 yuan / ton, the listing price of the direct selling market increased by 2,800 yuan / ton to 18,300 yuan / ton, and the pure MDI listing price was increased by 1,000, 1,500 yuan / ton to 26,200 yuan / ton from March to April.
We analyze the main reasons for this round of MDI growth: (1) Maintenance adjustments in the second quarter.
According to statistics, Shanghai Lianheng Phase I 35 forecast, maintenance from May 10 to June 3; Phase II 24 forecast, April 10 to June 3 maintenance; Shanghai Covestro 50 is expected to overhaul for 5 months; EastCao Ruian 8 inserts the rectified fraction for maintenance from April 1 to April 21; Tosoh Japan 40 is expected to have 25 days for maintenance in 5 months.
(2) For the oligopoly market, manufacturers have strong bargaining power, and some manufacturers have limited supply and started to raise prices.
Beginning in August 2016, MDI started a rapid growth market. Due to the decrease in the previous period, the MDI price has continued to adjust since 2018, with a decline of more than 50%.
Beginning in February 2019, major manufacturers began to raise prices.
Huntsman and others first announced the April price increase, Wanhua, and BASF subsequently announced price increases.
(3) The third quarter is expected to be the peak season, and refrigerators and real estate post-cycle support demand.
Judgment for the later market: (1) the industry utilization rate increased from 54% at the beginning to 70% last week. Overhaul seasons are expected to be strong. Q2-Q3 prices are expected to be strong. (2) The current prices are comfortable and the profitability of production companies is good.The importance of oligarchs and their ability to accept downstream, not the cost of aniline.
(3) After experiencing the unilateral price trend since 2018, although the adjustment time is not long enough, the lowest price level has been touched in 2015. Considering the price increase effect of inventory buying, it is expected that this round of aggregate MDI price rebound will push to reachAbove 2 million / ton.
The company’s current MDI production capacity of 210 emissions, the world’s first, Yantai Industrial Park plans to add 50 tons / year, Ningbo Industrial Park plans to add 30 tons / year, and plans to invest in the United States to build 40 tons / year, the polyurethane leading layer is stable.
Strong self-hematopoiesis ability, obvious advantages in technology, park and integration. The company has strong self-hematopoiesis ability. From 2015 to the third quarter of 2018, it transformed into long-term asset expansion 223.
400 million, among the best in the industry.
July / year PC (commissioned in January 2018), 30 digits / year TDI (December 2018), May / year MMA (commissioned in January 2019), August / year PMMA (2019) January(Commissioned) began to be completed and put into operation in 2018.
PC Phase II 13 budget / year is expected to start production in 2019.
At the same time, the company steadily promotes a 100-ton / year large ethylene project, supporting 15 tons of EO, 45 tons of LLDPE, 30/65 tons of PO / SM, 5 tons of butadiene, and 40 tons of PVC.
The company further extended from the C3 / C4 industrial chain in the first phase of the Octagon Industrial Park to the C2 industrial chain in the second phase.
The company’s industrial chain layout is expected to lead the second growth, and the long-term allocation value is prominent.
Earnings forecast and rating We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2020 will be 114.
1.1 billion, 136.
4.1 billion yuan, corresponding to 3 EPS.
63 yuan, 4.
34 yuan, PE 12.
5 times, 10 times.
As the recent increase in MDI prices has catalyzed the rapid and rapid growth of the company, the market is worried about adjustments considering the scale of transactions and the continued and continuous growth of MDI.
We believe that the company has strong self-hematopoiesis capabilities, obvious advantages in technology, parks and integration. The industrial chain layout leads the second growth, and the future growth space is large. The long-term configuration value of high-quality leaders with overlapping short-term price increases is prominent, and we maintain a “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product prices fluctuate sharply, and the progress of projects under construction is less than expected.