China Everbright Bank (601818) Interim Report Comments: Outperformed Expectations, Earnings Performance is Unique, Asset Quality Meets Positive Improvement

China Everbright Bank (601818) Interim Report Comments: Outperformed Expectations, Earnings Performance is Unique, Asset Quality Meets Positive Improvement

Event: Everbright Bank disclosed its semi-annual results for 2019.

1H19 achieved operating income of 661.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

6%; net profit attributable to mother is 204.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

1%, exceeding our expectation (the original increase in net profit attributable to mothers in 1H19) 8.

5%, mainly due to better-than-expected mid-income performance and poor improvement).

Non-performing rate in the second quarter of 19

57%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2bps; provision coverage ratio was 178.

04%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.

7 units.

The interest margin widens every year, and the middle-income advantage continues to strengthen, leading to outstanding performance beyond expectations.

Since 14 years, China Everbright Bank’s performance growth rate has only maintained its number growth, and this time, China Everbright Bank’s net profit attributable to mothers increased by 13.

1%, exceeding the market expectations, and also hit a historical high.

From the perspective of the decomposition of driving factors for performance growth, 1) the reduction and the extension to the widening of interest margins for many years led to a high increase in net interest income, which is the main cause, and has a positive contribution to performance growth.

1%; 2) Restructuring, China Everbright Bank’s long-term middle income advantage has been strengthened again.

Affected by changes in fair value, changes in profit and loss, 1H19 non-interest income increased negative growth, but focus on the core net fee income can be found: After reclassifying credit card installment income to interest income in 19 years, the core traditional bank card service fee netIncome above the growth rate remained above 20% (1Q19 and 1H19 were 24 respectively.

7%, 21.

7%), positive contribution to performance growth4.


The core tone of optimizing the asset-liability structure has not changed, and the loose structure of overlapping interbank debt interest rates has jointly created an outstanding performance in interest margins.

1H19 Everbright Bank spread wide 48bps to 2 in ten years.

At 28%, we estimate that the annualized interest rate difference in the single quarter of 2Q19 also narrowed slightly by 1bp to 2.


In terms of price, the pricing of restructured asset-side loans continued to increase, and the loan yield in 1H19 rose by 34bps to 5.

68%, but the expected debt yield will gradually decrease under the broad currency environment; instead of the debt end, more benefit from the displacement of the cost of interbank liabilities, the cost rate of interbank liabilities will gradually decrease by 70bps, which effectively hedges the pressure on storage costs and pays interestThe resistance cost is reduced by 22bps.

But more importantly, the main tone of China Everbright Bank in optimizing its asset and liability structure is still continuing: 1) Vigorously consolidate the physical foundation, while benefiting from the decline in the cost of interbank liabilities, it is also more proactive in focusing on deposition.

In the first half of the year, new deposits accounted for 138% of the total new debt, and deposits increased by 20%, which is expected to be at the top of the stock bank.

2) The proportion of loans in 1H19 increased to 55.

8%, but in 1H19, China Everbright Bank’s credit disposition assumes public debt, and public debt accounts for 53% of total new loans.

6%, while retail credit card loans accounted for 30% of incremental incremental loans.

4%, in an environment where credit card risks have been improved in a timely manner, and proactively expand the pace of investment, which further reflects its prudent 苏州夜网论坛 operating style.

The non-performing rate has declined steadily. After the initial bad stocks are gradually cleared out, and after actively realizing the asset quality, the asset quality ushers in a more positive marginal improvement.

Everbright Bank’s asset quality has been under pressure since the second half of 2018, and the performance of Everbright Bank from year to date has basically reflected investor approval.

For the Air Force, we judge that the second half of 19 is expected to usher in a bad turning point, and it has been verified in this interim report.

In the second quarter of 19, China Everbright Bank’s non-performing ratio decreased by 2bps to 1.

At 57%, we calculated that the negative generation rate of 2Q19 plus write-offs decreased by 23bps to 151bps from 1Q19.

Concerned about the loan ratio fell 11返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查bps to 2 compared to 18 years.30%, of course, the United States and China is slightly inadequate, the loans within 90 days of overdue loans increased by 25 compared to the end of 18 years.

With an impact of 7%, overdue loans increased by 17 sequentially.

9%, and the overdue loan rate is also 2 by the end of 18 years.

36% rose to 2.


However, according to the banks that have been disclosed in the interim report, most of the banks’ loans overdue within 90 days in the first half of 19 were up on a month-on-month basis, which is mainly due to credit card overdue.

In addition, Everbright Bank continued to strictly identify bad, 1H19 “overdue for more than 90 days / non-performing loans” was 88.

69%, and the overall level of provision remained adequate, and the provision coverage ratio in the second quarter of 19 decreased slightly by 0 quarter-on-quarter.

7 up to 178.


From the current point of view, we believe that China Everbright Bank ‘s basic initial release of poor stocks has been completed and asset quality is expected to be in the first echelon of listed banks for a long time, which is a good foundation for steady growth in future performance.

Investment suggestion: Everbright Bank ‘s mid-term report performance exceeded expectations, strong revenue and unfavorable improvement. After the new position is in place, focus on subsequent more proactive marginal changes.

Increase the profit forecast, it is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15 in 2019-2021.

0%, 15.

7%, 16.

2% (previous forecast was 7 respectively.

8%, 8.

3%, 8.

9%, mainly adjusting income and interest margin), the current total corresponds to 19 years 0.

61x PB, maintain BUY rating and first recommendation combination.

Risk reminder: adverse risks caused by economic substance.

Sunshine City (000671): Net profit attributable to mother increased by 42.56% net debt ratio is significantly optimized

Sunshine City (000671): Net profit attributable to mother increased by 42.56% net debt ratio is significantly optimized
Investment Highlights: Q1-Q3 revenue grew steadily, and net profit attributable to mothers increased 42.56%.From Q1-Q3 in 2019, the company achieved a total operating income of 320.26 ppm, an increase of 23 over the same period last year.47%; net profit attributable to parent company was 22.54 ppm, an increase of 42 over the same period last year.56%; realized reduced budgetary benefits of 0%.49 yuan, an increase of 25 over the same period last year.64%. The resistor structure is optimized, and the net debt ratio is significantly reduced.As of the end of the reporting period, the total assets of the company were 3103.1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17 over the same period last year.49%. Reporting the average, the company’s gross margin was 28.38%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.90 averages; net margin is 7.85%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.55 units.In terms of debt structure, as of the end of the reporting period, the company’s assets and liabilities were reorganized84.39%, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.16 units; net debt decreased by 142.16%, down 65 from the same period last year.57 units. China Mintou completely withdrew from Sunshine City, and the equity change came to an end.According to the company’s announcement on February 26, 2019, Zhongmin Jiaye (controlled by Zhongmin Investment) transferred 50% of its Shanghai Jiawen (former Zhongmin Jiaye Subsidiary) holdings to Fujian Jebsen TradingAfter the transfer, Zhongmin Jiaye and Fujian Jebsen each hold 50% of Shanghai Jiawen.According to the company’s announcement on March 30, 2019, Shanghai Jiawen intends to transfer all of its shares in Sunshine City within six months after 15 trading days from the announcement date.As of October 23, 2019, Shanghai Jiawen has reduced its holding of Sunshine City shares by 3535 through centralized bidding transactions.260,000 shares, with a shareholding ratio of 18.04% dropped to 17.29%.According to the company’s announcement on October 24, 2019, Fujian Jebsen will transfer 50% equity of Shanghai Jiawen held by Zhongmin Jiaye.After this change in equity, Fujian Jebsen will hold 100% equity in Shanghai Jiawen.So far, China Mintou has notified this stage of the equity transfer of Sunshine City. profit prediction.We estimate that the company’s total operating revenue for 2019-2021 will be approximately RMB788 trillion, 1065 trillion, and 1433 trillion, respectively.Net profit attributable to mothers was approximately RMB 41, respectively.8.3 billion, 56.4.9 billion 合肥夜网 yuan, 75.1.1 billion.We calculated that the company transparency RNAV is 11.52 yuan. Investment suggestion: Maintain the rating of “Long-term Market”.The company has completed the “3 + 1 + X” national layout, and the sales scale has entered the 100 billion legion. The total land reserve can support the continuous expansion of land scale for 3-4 years, diversified financing channels, controllable costs, and rich experience and incentives.The mechanism is in place, and the overall competitiveness competes.We expect the company’s corresponding EPS in 2019-2020 to be 1.03 yuan and 1.39 yuan.As of October 25, 2019, the company closed at 6.60 yuan, corresponding to PE in 2019 and 2020 at 6.39 times and 4.73 times, corresponding to PEG at 0.17 times.Give the company August 2019?10 times PE, 6-month reasonable value range is 8.26?10.33 yuan, maintain the “preliminary market” rating. Risk warning: The company’s sales are lower than expected, and the industry is subject to restrictions and there are downside risks.

Evergreen Group (002616) In-depth Report: Centralized Operation of Biomass Leading Heating Capacity

Evergreen Group (002616) In-depth Report: Centralized Operation of Biomass Leading Heating Capacity
Solid operation and lean management help the company grow. The company started with the production and sales of gas appliances. After a long-term stable operation, it has developed into a domestic leader in biomass power generation and industrial heating.Good credit reputation has enabled the company to win more external financing, improve internal management mechanisms, and reduce the company’s production costs and profitability.  The company’s performance in the past three years has maintained rapid growth, good cash flow, and an incentive mechanism in place. 厦门夜网 Biomass energy has broad development space, and the environmental protection benefits of combined heat and power are prominently affected by fuel and supplementary policies. The biomass energy industry has encountered difficulties in the past two years.Driven by the multi-dimensional factors of government-approved biomass energy and people ‘s livelihood and environmental protection attributes, the advancement of biomass energy use technology, the implementation of compensation policies, and the gradual maturity of business models, the biomass industry is gradually declining and the industry integration is accelerating.Take the road of scale and industrialization.  The combined heat and power project has high comprehensive energy utilization efficiency.Under the background of the blue sky defense battle, the elimination of small and medium-sized boilers is accelerating, and biomass and coal-fired cogeneration projects are facing broad growth space. The company has a wide range of projects in hand and a large number of projects. It is expected that the future growth of the company’s business will maintain a stable development trend.In terms of biomass projects, long-term power generation projects have excellent operation and management. Yishui project, Yutai project, Mingshui project, Ning’an project and Zhongshan project have been put into production for many years, with good cost control and strong profitability.The proposed project transforms the combined heat and power generation, and the Tancheng project brings the demonstration benefits to help multiple projects land quickly, Tancheng, Tieling, Xinye, Binxian, Yongcheng, Songyuan, Funing, Yongning, Yanjin, Huaxian andThe Zhongxian project is expected to focus on production in these two years.In terms of centralized heating projects in industrial parks, the 18-year operation of the Mancheng project has opened a new chapter for the company’s coal-fired combined heat and power. Shaoguan, Maoming, Xiaogan, and Shexian projects have promoted rapid commissioning in about 20 years.The centralized operation of these projects will guarantee the company’s high performance. Covered for the first time, give “Buy” rating, target price 9.5-12.6 yuan We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 19-21 will be 3 respectively.0/4.7/6.0 million yuan, the budget revenue of 19-21 years is 0.40/0.63/0.81 yuan, corresponding PE is 21/13 / 10X.  We think the company’s stock is currently worth 9.45-12.Between 6 yuan, there is a 10% -45% premium space.Covered for the first time, giving the company a “Buy” rating.  Risk reminder: Project construction progress exceeds expectations, capital starts to be too large, cash flow is tight

Economic expected to start stable, market expects marginal improvement

Economic expected to start stable, market expects marginal improvement
The economic operation is still facing challenges. At present, the world economy is significantly slowing down, the domestic automobile market is continuing to decline, the real estate market is facing adjustment risks, liquidity has not yet effectively entered the real economy, and other issues are prominent. The real economy has reduced difficulties and consumption growth has slowedThe growth of effective investment is weak, and the downward pressure on the economies of developing countries is still feasible.  First, the automotive industry has entered a critical stage of development.  The current automobile production and sales have continued to decline since the second half of 2018, especially since September, there have been two large declines. The growth rate of automobile production and sales has fallen by 14 in the first two months of this year.1% and 14.9%.At present, the automotive industry in developing countries is entering the development stage, which is disturbed by short-term factors, and also by long-term factors such as insufficient technological innovation.Looking at short-term factors, the first is that over-stimulation of market demand has caused overdraft of market demand.Introduced in 2015 1.The preferential policies for the purchase tax of passenger cars for 6 years and above were fully withdrawn in 2018. In 2016 and 2017, concentrated consumption occurred, causing market demand to be overdrawn in advance.Second, the slowdown of the macro economy will not affect the reduction in demand for heavy trucks and commercial vehicles such as large and medium-sized passenger cars, and it will also affect residents’ expectations for car purchases.Third, some dealers cleared their inventory before the Spring Festival and adjusted the pace of entering the car.  Looking at the medium and long-term factors, the first is that the income of residents is relatively slow, the lack of wealth effects in the stock market, the rapid increase in the leverage of the housing loan and the household sector, and the expansion of consumption effects such as car purchase.Second, the weak technological innovation capability has led to increased competition in the low-end and mid-end brands market, rising raw material prices, falling revenues for vehicle manufacturers, and lack of new growth points for new energy commercial vehicle products.Third, due to problems such as traffic congestion, energy saving and emission reduction, some cities have implemented restrictions on purchases, restrictions on vehicles, and the initiation of car upgrades to some extent, which has restrained some car purchases.In short, as an important consumer leader, the automotive industry chain is very long, and the downturn in the automotive market has impacted upstream and downstream related industries.  Second, the real estate market is facing adjustment pressure.  The real estate market has experienced a significant cooling trend recently.From January to February, the income of commercial housing increased by 2.8%, sales area decreased by 3.6%, at least 12 respectively.5 and 7.7 averages.After the market has cooled down, there is a potential for adjustments in real estate development investment: First, the investment in Jian’an projects has continued to decline.Investment in construction and installation projects is the absolute main body of investment in real estate development. Recently, the investment in construction and construction projects has increased significantly, and has continued to decline for 10 consecutive months since March 2018.Second, there is a clear “false fire” in real estate investment.The current high growth in real estate investment is the result of rising land purchase costs.Investment in real estate development increased in 20189.5%, of which land purchase fees increased by 57%, accounting for up to 30%.3%, real estate investment excluding land purchase fees fell 3.2%.Third, the completion rate of commercial buildings continued to decline.Initially, the completion rate (completion area / construction area) of commercial buildings is continuously changing, and the completion rate in 2018 is only 11.4%, down by 1 from the previous year.The six averages are less than half of 2008, which means that the construction period of real estate projects is lengthening.Fourth, the financing channels for real estate companies have tightened their investment and construction progress.Fifth, the market cooling has led to a decline in corporate investment expectations.With the diminishing marginal effect of the “destocking” policy, enterprises have begun to actively establish the pace of construction.Therefore, from the perspective of Jian’an Investment, land purchase fees, funding sources, sales, and corporate investment expectations, real estate investment in the future will bear the pressure of relay downlinks and be affected by related industries.  Third, the liquidity easing effect has not been effectively replaced.  Since 2018, the prudent monetary policy has continued to adjust, with several times the RRR cut. In cooperation with the CBRC, banks have been promoted to strengthen financial services to alleviate the difficulty of financing for private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.From January to February this year, RMB loans increased by 4.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 374.8 billion yuan a year; the increase in the scale of social financing has reached 5.31 trillion yuan, an increase of more than one year.05 trillion.  Although the deterioration of social liquidity tends to be loose, there are still hidden concerns in the structure, which are mainly manifested as follows: First, non-financial corporate loans are extended by bill financing and short-term loan write-offs, and corporate mid- and long-term loans cannot be resolved.Among non-financial corporate and government group loans, short-term loans increased by US $ 224.1 billion per year, and bill financing increased by US $ 728.3 billion over the years, but medium- and long-term loans increased by 75.8 billion yuan.The sluggish mid- and long-term loan growth of enterprises is not conducive to “stabilizing investment.”Second, the bill business has significantly strengthened its support for social financing scale.Bank acceptance bills include discounted bank acceptance bills and undiscounted bank acceptance bills.Among them, bank acceptance bills become on-balance sheet loans after discounting, that is, bill financing; undiscounted bank acceptance bills are banks’ off-balance sheet financing.The budget bill business financing increase exceeds 6423 trillion, accounting for 61% of the increase in social financing scale.2%.Third, under the circumstances of falling interest rates on the bill market and loose loan quotas, there has been a certain amount of arbitrage in the growth of the bill business. The “idling” of funds is not conducive to improving the efficiency and level of financial support to the real economy.Therefore, due to the weak legal mechanism, multiple loose liquidities have not yet effectively supported the development of the real economy.  Fourth, the downward pressure on the world economy has continued to increase.  Since the second half of 2018, the world economy has seen European and American stock markets plunge, oil prices have fallen, bond yields have fallen, and the prosperity index has fallen, and other variable risk signals have increased the pressure on the global economic deceleration.From the perspective of the economic cycle, the world economy has reached the top of the current growth cycle in 2018 and entered a downward phase.In the first quarter of this year, the global real economy may accelerate its decline and subsidence.  Looking at the leading indicators, the JP Morgan Chase Global Manufacturing PMI was 50 in February.6, down from the same period last year 3.Five points, a new low since June 2016; January’s OECD comprehensive leading indicator has fallen back to 99.2, hit a new low since October 2009.From the perspective of major economies, the economic growth momentum of the United States has weakened, the effect of tax reduction policies has diminished, and the government shutdown has affected residents ‘consumption.Downturn, again facing deflation risks.  In terms of institutional expectations, major international institutions have recently lowered their expectations for world economic growth.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 in the January World Economic Outlook revised report.2 good to 3.5%.The OECD expects the global economy to grow separately this year and next.3% and 3.4%, 0 lower than the forecast of November last year.2 and 0.1 average.The World Bank (WB) predicts that the global economy will change to 2 this year and next.9% and 2.8%, down by 0 from the June 2018 forecast.1 average.The global economic growth has typical policy shock characteristics. The tightening of US monetary policy and the intensification of trade frictions are the main incentives. Global debt remains high, Brexit, and geopolitical risks are rising. Factors such as increasing global economic growth are increasing the global economy.  The marginal situation of growth expectations is improving. The leading index indicates that the economic growth expectations for the second half of the year are gradually stabilizing, the scale of tax cuts and fees surpassing expectations, financial support for the real economy has been strengthened, the capital market has rebounded significantly, and foreign trade uncertainties have released positive signals. Overall market expectationsThere has been improvement and improvement, and the positive factors for stable economic development have accumulated.  First, the prosperity index shows that the annual economic growth in the second half of the year has stabilized.  The National Information Center (SIC) macroeconomic prosperity model analysis system shows that the consistent composite index continues to fall, indicating that the short-term internal macroeconomic continues to overcome downward pressure; the leading composite index has stopped falling and rebounded, indicating that the economy is expected to gradually stabilize in the future.Since 2015, the system’s leading composite index has been leading the consensus composite index for about 7 months on average.The latest forecast of the leading composite index appeared in July 2017, reaching 103.67 points, and then continued to lower, and rebounded for 4 consecutive months after bottoming in October 2018, until it rose to 101 in February 2019.01 o’clock.The leading composite index stopped falling and rebounded, which indicates that the consensus composite index is expected to stabilize and recover after 7 months, indicating that the long-term economic operation in the second half of the year will gradually stabilize.  The second is that the tax cuts exceeded expectations and stimulated the vitality of market players.  This year’s active fiscal policy focuses on tax and fee reductions. Exceeding expected tax cuts will help boost market confidence and stimulate endogenous momentum in the real economy.This round of tax reduction was more than expected, without the need to expand the issuance of additional national debt, or to reduce government spending, increase the profits paid by state-owned enterprises to spend vacancies in spending also exceeded market expectations.The expected average budget growth rate is 39% of the expected domestic tax revenue in 四川耍耍网 2018.3%, reducing the budget tax rate has a significant economic stimulus effect on developing countries, and lowering will reduce the domestic use cost of manufactured products (product addition + conversion rate), and achieve demand expansion; and must also ease the operation of manufacturers to a certain extentPressure to increase marginal profit levels.According to the calculation of the State Information Center Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (SICGE), the existing tax rate of 16% in the manufacturing and other industries will be changed to 13%, and the current 10% tax rate in the transportation and construction industries will be restored to 9%.Drive GDP growth within one year.15 averages, employment increased by 0 correspondingly.2 averages.  Third, the rebound in the stock market has boosted confidence in economic development.  Since the beginning of this year, the stock market has picked up significantly each year.At present, the main conditions for the stock market to pick up are: First, from a fundamental perspective, the current stock index does not reflect the level of China’s economic development.Since the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy has contributed about 30% of the global economic increase, but China’s stock indexes have only about half of their historical highs, while European and American and even some Asian countries’ stock indexes have continuously hit record highs. The United States, Germany, India, and South Korea’s stock indexesIncreased by 90%, 52%, 84% and 25% from the historical highs before the financial crisis.  Secondly, from the perspective of funds, funds such as pensions, insurance funds, and some foreign exchange have entered the market. Especially since last year, the RRR cut has released a large amount of liquidity. Funds will mainly enter the property market in the past. Today, the most severe policy in history has not been loosened.Under the circumstances, it will mainly enter the stock market.  Third, from a policy perspective, monetary policy has shifted from “stable and neutral” to “moderately tight”. Increasing the proportion of direct financing requires activating the capital market, especially promoting structural reform of the financial supply side, and formulating institutional dividends by accelerating the reform of the capital market system.  Fourth, from the external environment, external uncertainty is expected to decrease.The current gradual warming of the stock market is expected to boost confidence in economic development; the corporate financing environment has improved significantly, reducing excessive reliance on bank credit, and avoiding breakthroughs such as the crisis of equity pledges; establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system;It can solve the financing problems of technological innovation enterprises, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, and will cultivate outstanding entrepreneurs and middle class; enhance consumer confidence, effectively release the potential of domestic demand, and promote the formation of a strong domestic market.(Director: Zhang Yuxian, Deputy Director: Wang Yuanhong, Niu Li, Written by: Zhang Yuxian, Niu Li, Yan Min) The economic growth in the first quarter was mild and started at the beginning, the pressure on the production side is still increasing, and the new kinetic energy is growing faster; the demand side has been differentiated, and investment has stabilized and rebounded.Consumption demand is not strong, and external demand has declined. The economy in the first quarter will be moderate and gradual.  First, industrial production slowed down and the service industry ran smoothly.  Improved industrial production growth advantage.From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3%, an increase of 10 years average 1.Nine digits, down from 0 in December 2018.4 averages.There is contradictory downward pressure on industrial production, and it is expected to increase by 5 in the first quarter.About 6%.The main factors leading to the slowdown of industrial production are as follows: First, severe distortions in automobile production and sales dragged down industrial production, and automobile production and sales dropped by 14 from January to February.1% and 14.9%, the value added of the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 5.3%.Second, the sluggish external demand restrained the production of export-oriented industries, and the export delivery value of industrial enterprises increased from January to February.2%, ten-year average.3 averages.Thirdly, the production of high-tech manufacturing in January-February only increased by 6.4%, ten-year average.Five single ones, among which, the output of integrated circuits and smart phones fell by 15 respectively.9% and 12.4%; the export volume of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment decreased by 8 respectively.5% and 10.7%.However, we must also see that large-scale tax and fee reductions, vigorously improving the business environment and the rapid growth of new kinetic energy have strongly supported industrial production.Growth of strategic emerging industries from January to February10.1%, 3D printing equipment, graphene, new energy vehicles and other products output growth between 50% -200%.  The service industry maintained stable operation.From January to February, the national service industry production index increased by 7.3%, continuing a good development trend, the service industry is expected to grow 7 in the first quarter.About 2%.First, the modern service industry has developed rapidly, and the information transmission, software and information technology service industry indexes, and leasing and business service industry indexes have increased by 26 respectively.5% and 7.9%.Second, the stock index has risen sharply, the transaction volume has increased significantly, and the securities, bond and currency markets are active. The financial industry is expected to become an important driving force for the growth of the service industry.The third is the rapid transformation and upgrading of the traditional service industry. The market for services such as health and old-age care, medical care, tourism and leisure has maintained a strong momentum.Fourth, the opening up of the service industry has been further expanded. The “Foreign Investment Law” has strengthened investor confidence and the attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign countries, and a new round of rapid development has been ushered in the financial and other service sectors.However, the sales of commercial housing have cooled down, real estate industry production may be involved, and the slowdown of industrial production will also affect the productive service industry.  Second, investment demand is expected to improve, and consumer demand for foreign trade weakens.  Investment stabilized and rebounded.From January to February, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 6.1%, an increase of 0 faster than expected last year.For two years, investment is expected to increase by 6 in the first quarter.About 3%.First, the number of proposed projects is growing even better.According to the data of the national investment project online approval supervision platform, the number of projects planned for construction nationwide increased by 15 in 2018.5%, the proposed project will be converted into an actual investment project in a few months, providing an alternative project reserve for the stable operation of the investment; the second is the gradual advancement of infrastructure investment.Local government special bonds were issued in advance, the capital ratio of infrastructure projects was reduced, the investment in the central budget was allocated early, and policies such as strengthening financial support for infrastructure projects that were in line with the planned shortfalls were supported to support a marked rebound in infrastructure investment.The third is to improve the business environment. In particular, small and micro-enterprise loans of large state-owned commercial banks should increase by more than 30%. The recovery of the securities and bond markets will increase the proportion of direct financing, and companies will increase technological transformation and substitution to promote stable investment in manufacturing.However, it is conducive to expanding and affecting the investment capacity and investment expectations of enterprises.With the fall in industrial product prices, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has been traced from 21% in 2017 to 10 in 2018.3%, especially -1 in November and December 2018.8% and -1.9% drop.  Consumption growth forecast.From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2%, an increase of ten years average 1.Five fines, excluding price factors, actually increased 7.1%, zero for one year.8 averages.Automotive, real estate, online consumption and other major areas have cooled down. It is expected that the retail sales of consumer goods will increase in the first quarter.About 3%.First, the automotive market has clearly cooled down.January-February auto retail sales fell by 2.8%, ten-year average.Five single, drag-and-drop growth of total retail sales of consumer goods1.25 averages.Affected by this, the retail sales of petroleum and products increased by only 2.5%, six years ago.6 averages.Second, competition in the real estate market affects consumption of related products.From January to February, the retail sales of home appliances and furniture increased by 3.3% and 0.7%, at least 5 respectively.9 and 7.8 averages.Third, after years of rapid growth, the growth rate of online shopping slowed down, and the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 19 from January to February.5%, sixteen per year.1 average.However, the unemployment rate in developing countries is stable, and residents’ incomes have continued to increase. Expansion of consumption policies has helped boost consumption growth. At the same time, service consumption growth in line with the direction of resident consumption upgrade has been growing well.  Foreign demand has weakened significantly.From January to February, exports in dollar terms fell by 4.6%, imports fell by 3.1%, at least 28 respectively.3 and 25.3 averages.The impact of the decline in external demand and trade uncertainties is evident. Exports denominated in US dollars and imports are expected to increase by 0 in the first quarter.2% and 0.About 5%.First, external demand has weakened significantly since the beginning.The Baltic Dry Bulk Index abruptly changed from 1270 points at the end of last year to more than 600 points in March this year, reflecting the changing trend of global economic activity and the continuing deterioration of the trading environment.The second is the influence of trade uncertainties.From January to February, China’s exports to the United States fell by 14.1%, imports from the United States fell by 35.1%, drag and drop to the overall export and import growth of 7.6 and 3.9 averages.The third is the re-signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the relevant regulations form barriers to trade, investment, and technology exchanges with North American countries.The fourth is the entry into force of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which aims to eliminate more than 95% of product tariffs, which will impact some overseas markets in Pacific Rim countries.However, uncertainties in foreign trade are gradually improving, and foreign trade companies are expected to improve. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate after the last 4 months will help improve export competitiveness. Therefore, the import and export growth rate of countries along the “Belt and Road” is higher than the overallspeed.  The third is the increase in consumer prices, and the prices of industrial producers have continued to weaken.  The rise in consumer prices.From January to February, the CPI rose by 1.6%, an increase of 0 in two years.For six years, the CPI is expected to increase by one in the first quarter.About 7%.First, monetary policy remained tight and moderate, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced many times, currency liquidity tended to be loose, and the monetary and financial environment was conducive to the continued growth of consumer prices.Second, due to the Spring Festival, the prices of services such as travel and accommodation are relatively high.Third, the international oil price has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. The domestic price of gasoline and diesel has been raised four times, and energy prices have increased slightly.Fourth, the overall increase in food prices is not large, especially due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, pork demand has decreased significantly, and pork prices have fallen.Fifth, the tail-lifting factor was slightly reduced, and the CPI tail-lifting factor was zero in the first quarter.8. It goes down by 0 every year.3 averages.  Industrial producer prices have continued to weaken.From January to February, PPI rose by 0.1%, a seasonal decline of 3%.Nine budgets, PPI is expected to rise slightly to zero in the first quarter.About 2%.The initial trend of lower industrial product prices: First, the marginal effect of price increases caused by supply-side structural reforms has diminished, leading to increased downward pressure on the economy, and the relationship between supply and demand for industrial products has become loose.Second, the prices of energy and raw materials have shown a downward trend. The prices of petroleum mining, coal processing, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemical raw materials have shown a downward trend.Third, the PPI tailspan factor was zero in the first quarter.8, a decrease of 2 over the same period last year.The seven integrations have become an important factor in the fall in industrial product prices.  Since the beginning of this year, various policies have gradually come into effect, especially through counter-cyclical adjustments such as initial RRR cuts, tax cuts, and accelerated issuance of special bonds to gradually achieve a stable and open macroeconomic economy. GDP growth is expected in the first quarter.About 3%.Exceeded expectations for tax cuts and a marked recovery in the stock market, so future growth margins are expected to improve.But at the same time, the economic operation is still facing the deceleration of the world economy, the domestic automobile market has fallen sharply, the real estate market is subject to adjustment risks, and social liquidity easing effects have not been effectively replaced.  National Information Center Economic Forecasting Department

Linglong Tire (601966): Single tire plasma and gross profit increase every year

Linglong Tire (601966): Single tire plasma and gross profit increase every year

The company released a quarterly report, and the average singleton baby and gross profit increased.

35 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

88%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.

850,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

90%; realized non-net profit attributable to mothers 2.

51 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.


In terms of three fees, the company entered sales expenses in 2019Q1.

4 billion, with revenue accounting for 5.

96%, increasing by 0 every year.

08 pct; entry management and R & D expenses 2.

8.2 billion, with revenue accounting for 7.

00%, increasing by 0 every year.

50 pct; enter financial expenses1.

4.6 billion, with revenue accounting for 3.

61%, increasing by 0 every year.


In terms of production and sales, the company produced 1,445 tires in Q1.

04 million, an increase of 12 in ten years.

58%; sales of 1381 tires.

120,000 articles, an increase of 11 in ten years.


Achieved gross profit margin of 24.

44% per year last year.

A slight increase of 36%.

Achieved an average singleton mortality rate of 289.

59 yuan, an increase of 7 per year.

76 yuan; achieve an average single tire gross profit of 70.

78 yuan per year last year 68.

64 yuan increased by 2.

The company’s single tire value and profit have increased.

The production capacity continued to expand, and the 5 + 3 strategy smoothly promoted the company’s overall designed production capacity to reach 90.3 million (excluding Serbian projects). In 2018, it reached a production capacity of 64.45 million and a capacity utilization rate of 85.


New production capacity in 2019: The Texas plant is expected to increase its production capacity from 3.5 million to 6 million by the end of 2019; the Thai plant may increase its semi-steel production capacity from 13 million to 15 million in May 2019, and its total steel production capacity from 1.45 millionThe production capacity of all-steel tires at the Guangxi plant will be increased from 300,000 in March 2019 to 1 million. The Jingmen plant is expected to achieve a production capacity of 3.5 million semi-steel and 1 million all-steel by the end of 2019.

The company’s production capacity is expected to increase to 74.5 million by the end of 2019.

The Serbia project and the US project will provide the company with increments in the long run. We are optimistic that the company will continue to exert its strength and exceed 100 million capacity in 2022.

The repurchase plan was implemented steadily, demonstrating the company’s confidence that the company plans to repurchase no more than 22 million shares (inclusive) for the company’s employee equity incentives.As of March 31, 2019, the company gradually repurchased 11,259,710 shares of the company through centralized bidding, accounting for 0% of the company’s total share capital.

94%, the total amount paid is 180,413,027 yuan.

The company’s preparation for equity incentives by repurchasing stocks reflects the company’s 佛山桑拿网 confidence in the current operating situation, and also indicates that the company’s equity incentive plan is on the agenda.

We are optimistic that under the stimulation of equity incentives, the company’s operations are stable and long-term steady development.

The combination of cost and quality, another rising manufacturing in China. We are optimistic about Linglong’s advantage of cost and quality. In the nearly one trillion tire market space, Rising has become another outstanding representative of Chinese manufacturing.

In the field of domestic cars, the company will transform into the rise of domestic cars and develop rapidly. R & D and branding are the company’s core competitiveness. In the international automotive field, the company has entered the Volkswagen supply chain and gradually entered more foreign brands.On the basis of this, the company will bear the cost advantage brought by management and sales to defeat international competitors.

Investment suggestion: We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 14 in 19-21.

500,000 yuan, 16.

7 billion and 19.

5.6 billion, with EPS of 1.

21 yuan, 1.

39 yuan, 1.

63 yuan, PE is 14.

25X, 12.

37X and 10.

56X, give “highly recommended” rating.

Risk reminder: The price of natural rubber fluctuates, and the project is not up to expectations.

Annual report express series of thematic analysis by cultural media companies (1): Yongle Culture (837736): Revenue scale expands and grows by 64%. Venue business has become a new bright spot

Annual report express series of thematic analysis by cultural media companies (1): Yongle Culture (837736): Revenue scale expands and grows by 64%. Venue business has become a new bright spot

Event: The company released the 2018 results flash report, reporting a series of realized operating income8.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 64 in ten years.

39%, operating profit of 99.69 million yuan, an annual increase of 5.

25%, achieving a net profit of 9010.

280,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.


(Company announcement) Continue to promote the strategic layout of horizontal, vertical and vertical, and the rapid growth of ticketing business.

Yongle Culture is a platform company based on ticket agency business, integrating venue operations + content investment.

According to the performance report, the company’s ticketing business grew rapidly in 2018, with a year-over-year growth rate of more than 30%.

According to the semi-annual report, in the first half of 2018, the company established strategic cooperation with Warner Music (one of the world’s three largest record companies) and Vlacom (the third largest media company in the United States). In the future, it will be committed to the development of performance resources, ticket market cooperation andPlatform promotion to jointly build a Chinese music festival brand with global global influence.

Hand in hand with brother companies to strengthen content investment business.

The company’s content investment includes offline performances, shows, and shows such as cultural performances, sports events and parent-child entertainment.

At the scale of the report, while predicting independent investment projects, the company strengthened its cooperation with siblings in the industry, gradually diversified risks, and further enhanced the company’s business integration capabilities and industry influence, and achieved business revenue growth.

According to the semi-annual report, the company’s performance investment projects in the first half of 2018 were close to 50, including the first-time European and American superstars such as John Legend, Fall Out Boy, and Luo Dayou, Wang Ruolin and other well-known domestic artists.

Strategic layout of scarce venue resources, the cinema line Olive officially put into operation.

For the scale of the report, the company adjusted its business layout, expanded and contracted the film business, replaced related assets, and replaced the expansion of the theater line Olive business based on ticketing + performing arts investment. At present, the live entertainment industry layout has been completed.
In March 2018, the Wuliangye Chengdu Performing Arts Center (referred to as the “Great Rubik’s Cube”) officially started operation. Yongle Culture officially rented out as an operating service provider. In June 2018, the renovation of the Olive venue was completed and began to be replaced. Wang Ruolin ‘s concert was Olive The start-up operation started the first shot, and the launch of Olive has aroused heated discussions among all parties in the show industry.

In the long run, the venue business is the cornerstone of the company’s business development and the only way for the company to pursue long-term stable development. It is of great significance 北京夜网 to the company’s future revenue and profit growth.

(Company Express and Semi-Annual Report) New breakthroughs have been made in the technology business, which is the basis for future development potential.

According to the performance report, based on the internal humanities overview business, the technology business in 2018 has obtained the operating rights of the Badaling Great Wall People Flow Management System, which provides another classic case for the company’s technology business expansion in natural scenic areas, and the company’s technology businessGrowth lays the foundation for sustainability.

Gross margin from 44.

60% dropped to 29.

04%, the scale of some business income has not yet been reflected.

The company implements a variety of performance projects and stars, appropriately supports and invests in second- and third-line artists, and the proportion of non-first-line star performances has increased. The scale of investment sponsorship has basically remained the same as that of the previous year, resulting in a certain reduction in performance project returns. The company will continue toStrengthen the performance integration operation ability and business team building to improve the company’s profitability.

At the same time, the company’s strategic layout of scarce venue resources is still in its infancy, and the scale of revenue has not been fully reflected, but costs have begun to amortize, which has reduced the company’s gross profit margin to a certain extent.

60% dropped to 29.


The venue business is a strategic support point for the company’s business layout in the next few years, although it will cause some pressure on the company’s profitability in the short term.

(Company Announcement).

Investment suggestion: As of the latest, the company’s market size is 12.

76 ppm, corresponding to 14X PE in 2018, it is recommended to pay attention.

Risk warning: cash management risk, market competition risk, short-term repayment risk of bank loans.

Chongqing Water Affairs (601158): Withdrawal of impairment affects performance and looks forward to steady development

Chongqing Water Affairs (601158): Withdrawal of impairment affects performance and looks forward to steady development
Event: The company announced its 2018 annual report.During the reporting period, the company’s operating income and net profit attributable to the mother were 51.71 ppm and 14.22 trillion, an increase or 杭州桑拿 decrease of 15 each year.64% and -31.23%, lower than the original expected net profit of 300 million yuan. Key points of investment: Increase in production capacity, slight rise in comprehensive water prices, and operating income in line with expectations.During the reporting period, in terms of water supply: Chongqing’s main urban area (water volume +10.67%, water price -4.45 minutes / 10,000 cubic meters), Chongqing Hechuan District (water volume +6.97%, water price +21.8 points / 10,000 cubic meters), Chongqing Wansheng Economic and Technological Development Zone (water volume +2.09%, water price is 0.64 points / 10,000 cubic meters).Sewage treatment business: Chongqing City (water volume +9.35%, water price is flat), Qingbaijiang District, Chengdu (water amount -12.68%, the price of water is flat), Dazu District, Chongqing (the amount of water is flat, the price of water is flat).Currently, the company’s total water supply capacity is 218.60,000 cubic meters / day, all located in Chongqing; the company’s total sewage treatment capacity is 292.440,000 cubic meters / day, supplementing 47.550,000 cubic meters / day; the company’s daily water supply capacity is 243.600,000 m3 / day, an increase of 250,000 m3 / day.Revenue from water supply and wastewater treatment business increased by 13 respectively.61%, 12.54%, total 38.1.6 billion, accounting for 73% of revenue.81%.In addition, the installation business increased significantly, and the company’s construction revenue increased rapidly during the reporting period, increasing by 63 per year.07%.In the end, the company’s main business income increased by 15 per year.38%. The consumption of drugs for upgrading and upgrading has increased significantly, and the profitability of sewage treatment has decreased.During the reporting period, due to the increase of costs such as drug consumption, the company’s gross profit margin of the wastewater treatment business, which accounted for 48% of its revenue, decreased6.98 levels, the final company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 41.77%, compared with the same period last year4.34 units.The 17-year concentrated forecast of returns affects non-recurring gains and losses.In 2017, the company received a one-off refund from Chongqing’s centralized fiscal procurement of wastewater treatment services during the period from July 2015 to December 20163.57 billion, excluding the above factors, net profit (excluding minority shareholders’ profit and loss) decreased by 16 compared with the same period of the previous year.96%.Impairment was provided and performance was lower than expected.Jiulong Tanggu Power, a subsidiary of the company, is the legal entity of Jiulu County Ruluku, Zhonggu, Tanggu and other three small-scale cascade hydropower projects. The company has decided to terminate the Jiulong hydropower project investment.With respect to the impairment value of the relevant assets of the Kowloon Company, the provision for impairment in 2018 reduced the profit2.990,000 yuan, resulting in 2018 results lower than expected. The project construction is progressing in an orderly manner, and the sewage production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 20199.50,000 m3 / day, the dividend rate is high.Currently the company has put into operation tap water 243.60,000 m3 / day, the report may increase by 250,000 m3 / day, 75 m3 / day under construction, and 55 capacity utilization.37%, the commissioning of subsequent projects and the transfer of trial projects to stable operation will increase water supply.The company is operating a sewage treatment capacity of 292.440,000 m3 / day, 9 under construction.50,000 m3 / day (Chongqing 80,000 m3 / day, Hubei 1.50,000 m3 / day) and is expected to be put into production in 2019.The company’s dividend payout ratio is 94.55%, with a closing price 成都桑拿网 of 6 on March 22, 2019.4 yuan / share calculation index reset 4.4%. Investment rating and estimation: According to the project situation of the company, it is assumed that subsequent projects will progress steadily.The 20-year attributable net profit forecast is 18 respectively.4.8 billion, 20.8.6 billion (was 18).25, 18.800 million), plus net profit attributable to mothers in 202122.6.5 billion.Corresponding to 16 times PE in 2019, the proportion of dividends is high, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Cree Electromechanical (603960) Semi-annual Report of 2019: Performance Achieves High Growth, New Products and New Areas Continue to Expand

Cree Electromechanical (603960) Semi-annual Report of 2019: Performance Achieves High Growth, New Products and New Areas Continue to Expand

Dynamic events The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 to achieve revenue3.

480,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +45.

33%; net profit attributable to mother is 45.95 million yuan, +62 year-on-year.


Matter Review The company’s 2019H1 results achieved high growth.

The company’s high-performance growth in H1 in 2019 is mainly due to the completion of acceptance of existing orders in the flexible automation equipment and industrial robot systems business, and the strong profitability of orders; Shanghai Zhongyuan benefited from the National Six switch and the unit price of products increased.

The flexible automation business will continue to grow steadily in the future, and new products and new areas will continue to develop.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s flexible automation equipment and industrial robot system business broke new orders1.

70 ppm, compared with the same period last year alone in the new decade.

The improvement of US $ 8.8 billion was mainly due to the delay in the company’s board of directors of major downstream customers from April to June, and the approval of the corresponding annual annual fixed asset budget and purchase plan of the customers was delayed to June, resulting in the company’s first half of 2019The new year bill is smaller than the previous one.

With the budget determination of capital expenditure of downstream customers in June, the company’s new orders began to pick up.

The company maintains its advantages in the field of automotive electronics automation and has grown steadily, especially in the field of new energy automotive electronics.

In the 南京夜网 field of new energy vehicle motor electrical control equipment, we have achieved continuous breakthroughs in research and development and orders, including: assembly and test of high-end complete sets of drive motor controllers for new energy vehicles, assembly and test production lines of 48VDCDC controllers, and intelligent complete sets of iBooster controllers., Energy recovery controller BRM production line, etc.

The company also achieved breakthroughs in driverless related products and equipment.

In the field of optical communication, we have successfully developed a flexible automated assembly and testing unit for optical fiber transceivers, which has been supplied to Finisar, a well-known manufacturer of optical communication devices worldwide.

Bosch and United Electronics will continue to focus on electrification and autonomous driving in the future. The investment in new products and new production lines will continue in the future. The company’s current automation equipment is still located in customers, and it is expected to benefit from the continued capital expenditure of customers.Increase and increase market share.

Investment Advice.

Maintain the company’s sales revenue for 2019/2020/2021 to 8.

47, 10.

59, 13.

1.9 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mother 1.

01, 1.

31, 1.

67 trillion, EPS is 0.

57, 0.

74, 0.

95 yuan, the corresponding PE is 48.

8, 37.

7, 29.

5 times, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating.

Risk Warning: Small market value is estimated to be high, and downstream demand prospects.

Jianyou Co., Ltd. (603707): Heavy Enoxaparin Approved for Export Breakthrough in EU

Jianyou Co., Ltd. (603707): Heavy Enoxaparin Approved for Export Breakthrough in EU

Event: The company announced that Enoxaparin Sodium Injection was approved for UK marketing.

Heavy block Enoxaparin approved by EU.

The company submitted an Enoxaparin listing application in 2015. Considering the complexity of the heparin review, the historical approval cycle is 6-7 years, and the approval in 4 years progresses rapidly.

The company’s first batch of products was declared to the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and Sweden. The United Kingdom is the first to issue approval documents. The other three countries are expected to obtain approval in the next few weeks.

In addition, the company will gradually submit applications for mutual recognition of listing permission to other EU countries. The subsequent application countries can reuse technical assessments. The mutual recognition process generally takes 90 days from application to approval in each country. We expect that other regions of the EU will be approved quickly.
Enoxaparin injection is Sanofi’s original research product, and its sales volume in the European Union is relatively stable, about 8 billion to 1 billion euros per year.

There are many European countries. The main markets are the Western European countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.

At present, in addition to the company, there are 2 generic drug companies in Europe. In September 2016, Hyprox’s subsidiary Tiandao Pharmaceutical’s Enoxaparin was approved in Europe for the first batch. In 2017, Rovi’s generic drugs were approved in Germany 杭州桑拿 and the United Kingdom.

With reference to the performance commitment of Haipu Rui’s acquisition of Doppler (Tiandao Pharmaceutical), Doppler’s non-deduction net profit for 2018-2020 is not less than 1.

9, 2.

9 and 3.


We expect that the European market for Enoxaparin is expected to contribute 120-200 million profit per year.

2018 is the first year of export of injections. At the beginning of 2019, heavy varieties have been approved, and subsequent varieties have continued.

2018 was the first year of the company’s injection export breakthrough. A total of 7 injections ANDA were approved, one of which was self-declared (heparin sodium), one was technology transfer (gemcitabine), and the remaining five were agents to purchase transferred varieties.

The heavy-weight Enoxaparin Sodium has been harvested in 苏州夜网论坛 the European Union in early 2019, and is expected to be approved in the United States in the second half of 2019 or early 2020.

The company’s follow-up research injectable products are rich, focusing on the development of the full range of tumors, and also in the large areas of anesthesia and cardio-cerebral blood vessels; and the introduction of technology transfer to accelerate the approval of products, ANDA varieties continue to be enriched, expected in the next 2-3 yearsDozens of products have been approved in the United States, bringing continuous growth momentum.

Classical swine fever has further strengthened the heparin boom cycle, and a large stock of crude products has benefited significantly.

The only source of heparin is the pig’s small intestine, which is used clinically for anticoagulation. The industry maintains an annual growth rate of about 10%. Demand is rigid and cannot be replaced.

At present, China’s heparin production accounts for more than 60% of the world’s total, and the small intestine of pigs has reached 90%. The small intestine of pigs that are considered for dispersed slaughter cannot be used, and currently there is little room for improvement.

During 2016, upstream and downstream inventory bottomed out, demand growth and environmentally-friendly clearing small production capacity, heparin APIs have been tightly balanced, heparin has entered a new cycle of boom, and prices have shown a modest increase.

With the spread of swine fever, the production capacity of pigs has increased. In the second half of the year, the slaughter of pigs may be further shifted. Corresponding to the supply of heparin, the swine fever will further strengthen the heparin boom cycle.

Because the cost of raw materials in the downstream preparations is relatively low, the gross profit margin of the preparations is relatively high, and the downstream price acceptability is strong in the context of demand.

In the second half of the year, the conversion of pigs to the slaughterhouse will be realized. Heparin APIs are expected to replicate the 2008-10 market.

The company has the significant benefit of having a large inventory of crude products, and the centralized model has become stronger in upstream control.

Profit forecast and estimation discussion: Without considering the impact of swine fever, we expect 2018-2020 operating income to be 18.

11, 27.

00 and 34.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 62 in ten years.

79%, 49.

07% and 25.


Net profit attributable to mother 4.

51, 6.

18 and 8.

22 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.

56%, 37.

06% and 33.00%, the current total corresponds to 31 times PE in 2019.

Considering that the company is a leading company in the export of domestic injections, the export logic has been continuously strengthened, and swine fever has continued to strengthen the boom cycle of the heparin industry, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning events: the risk of narrowing the price gap between raw materials and APIs; the risk of concentration of sales customers; the risk of ANDA approval not meeting expectations; revealing the limitations of forecasting methods and results

Qiaqia Food (002557): Small Yellow Bags Help Performance Exceed Expected Performance in Online Channels

Qiaqia Food (002557): Small Yellow Bags Help Performance Exceed Expected Performance in Online Channels

The event company released the third quarter report of 2019, with revenues of 19Q1-Q3 reaching 32.

1.9 billion (+10.

64%), net profit attributable to mother 4 ‰ (+32.

27%), deducting non-net profit 3.

1.7 billion (+39.


3Q19 achieved revenue of 12.

3.2 billion (+19.

01%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

800 million (+37.

79%), deducting non-net profit 1.

4.5 billion (+36.


The investment point of the small yellow bag is excellent, and e-commerce has helped to exceed revenue.

19Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 32.

1.9 billion (+10.

64%), of which revenue was 12 in 19Q3.

3.2 billion (+19.

01%), a significant acceleration from the previous quarter.

In terms of categories, according to grassroots research calculations, the growth rate of Q3 red bags is about 10-15%; blue bags are about 30%, and product upgrades help raise prices; with the help of Focus, yellow bags go online and offline go hand in hand, and Q3 scale is expected to double.It is believed that the target of 8-10 trillion per year (including tax) for yellow bags can be guaranteed.

In terms of channels, we estimate that the growth rate of Q3 online channels is 80% +, and the single-quarter growth rate contributes about 5% to 7%. Cross-border marketing promotes the growth of offline channels by about 14-15%.

Product upgrade + production automation increase gross profit, cross-border marketing and plastic branding.

Every 1Q3 gross profit margin increases by 1.

2pct to 35.

8%, Q3 basically has no low base effect before the price increase. We expect that product upgrades and daily automation of nut production lines will increase performance.

Q3 sales expense ratio was 15.

9% (+1.

1pct), which is expected to include the increase in shipping costs caused by the increase in online revenue, and the cooperation with Focus Media to increase the cost of offline marketing.

The momentum of cross-border marketing has not diminished. In September, it cooperated with Netease Cloud Music to carry out cross-border music. Through insight into the behavior of independent musician fans, it gained exposure resources. On October 1, LV cooperation designer Vincent Du Sartel createdThree high-end gift boxes appeared in Paris, effectively enhancing the brand image.

Q3 Management expense ratio (including R & D) 5.

1% (+0.

09pct), continue to implement higher management efficiency, in which the R & D expense rate +0.

07 points.

Q3 operating external income increased by 0 every year.

170,000 yuan, mainly due to increased government subsidies.

In summary, the net profit margin in 19Q3 was 14.

62% (+ 2 pct), net profit attributable to mother 1.

800 million (+37.79%), deducting non-net profit 1.

4.5 billion (+36.


Profit forecast and investment grade: The company has strong offline channel barriers, significant brand advantages, and exerts strength online, with expected growth.

Relying on internal channels, Qiaqia has created explosive products such as daily nuts, yam crisps, and net red seeds. It is expected to become a snack food platform company and supplement the price increase income to cash in. We believe that the company targets a 15-20% revenue growthRealizing great potential and promising growth.

It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 19-21 years will be 490,56 / 64,000 yuan, + 16/15/14% per year; the net profit attributable to mothers will be 5.



4 ppm, + 27/17/16% for one year; corresponding PE is 27/23 / 20X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: product 南宁桑拿 competition is becoming fierce, raw material costs are increasing, and there is a natural risk in nut cultivation.