Opportunities in the A-share industry chain under the second shock due to the outbreak of Japan and South Korea
Original title: Japan and South Korea outbreak intensified!
The opportunity of the A-share industry chain in the second shock Source: 21st Century Business Herald Japan, South Korea’s new crown pneumonia outbreak still occurred in a large area!
As of the evening of February 24, a total of 850 cases of new coronary pneumonia have been confirmed in Japan, and 4 cases have gradually died.
Japanese government experts believe that there are many cases in Japan where the path of infection cannot be confirmed, which may spread rapidly in the future.
If the epidemic expands further, Japan’s medical system may collapse and social and economic activities will fall into chaos.
At 9 am on February 25th, South Korea released epidemic data. The latest 84 confirmed cases were added, and the number of confirmed cases has gradually reached 977. 8 deaths have occurred in South Korea.
A week ago, there were only 28 confirmed cases in South Korea.
Japan and South Korea’s new crown pneumonia crisis has intensified, leading to panic in the external market last night.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down across the board, all falling by more than 3%; European stocks also suffered a general setback, with major indexes in Germany, Britain, France, and Italy falling by 3% to 5%.
In terms of commodities, the United States and Cloth Oil fell nearly 4%.
Amidst the turmoil in the surrounding markets, domestic investors instinctively focused on the potential dangers that the intensification of Japan and South Korea ‘s epidemic could cause to the Chinese industry chain.
Potential impact of the outbreak of Japan and South Korea on the domestic industry chain Japan is China’s fourth largest trading partner.
According to Guotai Junan’s analysis, China’s imports from Japan are relatively dependent on imports of parts and intermediates.
If the epidemic breaks out, it will cause Japan’s production capacity to shrink, and it may have an impact on China’s domestic automobile, equipment manufacturing, semiconductor, and chemical industries in the future.
The specific major products affected are: 1) Mechanical and electrical equipment, audio-visual equipment and parts and accessories: Among the products that China relies on and imports from Japan are concentrated in industrial robots, mechanical shovel, engines, electric storage batteries, and ignition start equipment.
2) Major products of vehicles, aircrafts, ships and transportation equipment: China’s dependence on Japan focuses on the coupling devices and bogies, ships, automobiles, vehicle gearboxes, engine parts, etc. of railways, trams, or locomotives.
3) Optical and electronic equipment, medical and other instrument products: China’s dependence on Japan focuses on cameras, photographic laboratory instruments, dental accessories, optical components, etc.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, Japan’s computer electronics and optical equipment, electrical equipment, basic metals, rubber and plastics, machinery and equipment, and automotive and transportation equipment industries are located upstream of China.
Once the epidemic crisis passes, then China will have two industrial chain influences: one is the automobile chain, associated rubber, chemical industry, and metal products industry; the second is the high-tech manufacturing chain, which mainly includes electrical equipment, mechanical equipment and electronic opticsEquipment industry.
China and Thailand Securities believes that in terms of absolute trade, Japan and South Korea’s exports to China are mostly mechanical and electrical products, mainly integrated circuits and semiconductor components; Japan and South Korea’s most imported from China are also mechanical and electrical products, mainly terminal products such as telephones.
China-Japan-ROK trade is very close and 杭州夜网论坛 the industrial chain is very close. The new crown epidemic in Japan and South Korea may have a certain impact on the production and industrial chain development of developing countries.
Japan-South Korea epidemic or promote domestic substitution to accelerate the outbreak of Japan-Korea epidemic, and even a new wave of spreading trends that may be caused overseas has become an indisputable fact.
At the same time, there are different levels of impacts on China and even the global industrial chain.
However, the scale also provides Chinese companies with opportunities for domestic substitution and technological upgrading.
Tianfeng Securities believes that if the epidemic in Japan and South Korea spreads, it will form a second blow to the global industrial chain, especially in the automotive and electronics manufacturing 南宁桑拿 where the supply chain is connected in series and the division of labor is complex.The increase may disrupt production plans in the East Asian manufacturing industry chain and affect downstream companies in China’s industry chain, but may also accelerate domestic alternatives in some areas.
Specifically, the impact of the Japan and South Korea epidemic on the domestic industry can be divided into positive and vertical parts: the reverse part, which will form a second blow to the global industrial chain, which will most directly impact downstream companies in the Chinese industrial chain; the positive part, the domestic partIt is biased towards the upstream industry chain, and its main competitors are in Japan and South Korea. The epidemic has promoted market demand for related enterprise products and accelerated domestic substitution.
In addition, Zhongtai Securities pointed out that from the perspective of mature terminal demand in Japan and South Korea, the Japanese and South Korean products that domestic residents rely on may be affected by the epidemic, which may lead to import substitution effects in the medical and aesthetic industries and the food industry.