Economic expected to start stable, market expects marginal improvement
The economic operation is still facing challenges. At present, the world economy is significantly slowing down, the domestic automobile market is continuing to decline, the real estate market is facing adjustment risks, liquidity has not yet effectively entered the real economy, and other issues are prominent. The real economy has reduced difficulties and consumption growth has slowedThe growth of effective investment is weak, and the downward pressure on the economies of developing countries is still feasible. First, the automotive industry has entered a critical stage of development. The current automobile production and sales have continued to decline since the second half of 2018, especially since September, there have been two large declines. The growth rate of automobile production and sales has fallen by 14 in the first two months of this year.1% and 14.9%.At present, the automotive industry in developing countries is entering the development stage, which is disturbed by short-term factors, and also by long-term factors such as insufficient technological innovation.Looking at short-term factors, the first is that over-stimulation of market demand has caused overdraft of market demand.Introduced in 2015 1.The preferential policies for the purchase tax of passenger cars for 6 years and above were fully withdrawn in 2018. In 2016 and 2017, concentrated consumption occurred, causing market demand to be overdrawn in advance.Second, the slowdown of the macro economy will not affect the reduction in demand for heavy trucks and commercial vehicles such as large and medium-sized passenger cars, and it will also affect residents’ expectations for car purchases.Third, some dealers cleared their inventory before the Spring Festival and adjusted the pace of entering the car. Looking at the medium and long-term factors, the first is that the income of residents is relatively slow, the lack of wealth effects in the stock market, the rapid increase in the leverage of the housing loan and the household sector, and the expansion of consumption effects such as car purchase.Second, the weak technological innovation capability has led to increased competition in the low-end and mid-end brands market, rising raw material prices, falling revenues for vehicle manufacturers, and lack of new growth points for new energy commercial vehicle products.Third, due to problems such as traffic congestion, energy saving and emission reduction, some cities have implemented restrictions on purchases, restrictions on vehicles, and the initiation of car upgrades to some extent, which has restrained some car purchases.In short, as an important consumer leader, the automotive industry chain is very long, and the downturn in the automotive market has impacted upstream and downstream related industries. Second, the real estate market is facing adjustment pressure. The real estate market has experienced a significant cooling trend recently.From January to February, the income of commercial housing increased by 2.8%, sales area decreased by 3.6%, at least 12 respectively.5 and 7.7 averages.After the market has cooled down, there is a potential for adjustments in real estate development investment: First, the investment in Jian’an projects has continued to decline.Investment in construction and installation projects is the absolute main body of investment in real estate development. Recently, the investment in construction and construction projects has increased significantly, and has continued to decline for 10 consecutive months since March 2018.Second, there is a clear “false fire” in real estate investment.The current high growth in real estate investment is the result of rising land purchase costs.Investment in real estate development increased in 20189.5%, of which land purchase fees increased by 57%, accounting for up to 30%.3%, real estate investment excluding land purchase fees fell 3.2%.Third, the completion rate of commercial buildings continued to decline.Initially, the completion rate (completion area / construction area) of commercial buildings is continuously changing, and the completion rate in 2018 is only 11.4%, down by 1 from the previous year.The six averages are less than half of 2008, which means that the construction period of real estate projects is lengthening.Fourth, the financing channels for real estate companies have tightened their investment and construction progress.Fifth, the market cooling has led to a decline in corporate investment expectations.With the diminishing marginal effect of the “destocking” policy, enterprises have begun to actively establish the pace of construction.Therefore, from the perspective of Jian’an Investment, land purchase fees, funding sources, sales, and corporate investment expectations, real estate investment in the future will bear the pressure of relay downlinks and be affected by related industries. Third, the liquidity easing effect has not been effectively replaced. Since 2018, the prudent monetary policy has continued to adjust, with several times the RRR cut. In cooperation with the CBRC, banks have been promoted to strengthen financial services to alleviate the difficulty of financing for private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.From January to February this year, RMB loans increased by 4.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 374.8 billion yuan a year; the increase in the scale of social financing has reached 5.31 trillion yuan, an increase of more than one year.05 trillion. Although the deterioration of social liquidity tends to be loose, there are still hidden concerns in the structure, which are mainly manifested as follows: First, non-financial corporate loans are extended by bill financing and short-term loan write-offs, and corporate mid- and long-term loans cannot be resolved.Among non-financial corporate and government group loans, short-term loans increased by US $ 224.1 billion per year, and bill financing increased by US $ 728.3 billion over the years, but medium- and long-term loans increased by 75.8 billion yuan.The sluggish mid- and long-term loan growth of enterprises is not conducive to “stabilizing investment.”Second, the bill business has significantly strengthened its support for social financing scale.Bank acceptance bills include discounted bank acceptance bills and undiscounted bank acceptance bills.Among them, bank acceptance bills become on-balance sheet loans after discounting, that is, bill financing; undiscounted bank acceptance bills are banks’ off-balance sheet financing.The budget bill business financing increase exceeds 6423 trillion, accounting for 61% of the increase in social financing scale.2%.Third, under the circumstances of falling interest rates on the bill market and loose loan quotas, there has been a certain amount of arbitrage in the growth of the bill business. The “idling” of funds is not conducive to improving the efficiency and level of financial support to the real economy.Therefore, due to the weak legal mechanism, multiple loose liquidities have not yet effectively supported the development of the real economy. Fourth, the downward pressure on the world economy has continued to increase. Since the second half of 2018, the world economy has seen European and American stock markets plunge, oil prices have fallen, bond yields have fallen, and the prosperity index has fallen, and other variable risk signals have increased the pressure on the global economic deceleration.From the perspective of the economic cycle, the world economy has reached the top of the current growth cycle in 2018 and entered a downward phase.In the first quarter of this year, the global real economy may accelerate its decline and subsidence. Looking at the leading indicators, the JP Morgan Chase Global Manufacturing PMI was 50 in February.6, down from the same period last year 3.Five points, a new low since June 2016; January’s OECD comprehensive leading indicator has fallen back to 99.2, hit a new low since October 2009.From the perspective of major economies, the economic growth momentum of the United States has weakened, the effect of tax reduction policies has diminished, and the government shutdown has affected residents ‘consumption.Downturn, again facing deflation risks. In terms of institutional expectations, major international institutions have recently lowered their expectations for world economic growth.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 in the January World Economic Outlook revised report.2 good to 3.5%.The OECD expects the global economy to grow separately this year and next.3% and 3.4%, 0 lower than the forecast of November last year.2 and 0.1 average.The World Bank (WB) predicts that the global economy will change to 2 this year and next.9% and 2.8%, down by 0 from the June 2018 forecast.1 average.The global economic growth has typical policy shock characteristics. The tightening of US monetary policy and the intensification of trade frictions are the main incentives. Global debt remains high, Brexit, and geopolitical risks are rising. Factors such as increasing global economic growth are increasing the global economy. The marginal situation of growth expectations is improving. The leading index indicates that the economic growth expectations for the second half of the year are gradually stabilizing, the scale of tax cuts and fees surpassing expectations, financial support for the real economy has been strengthened, the capital market has rebounded significantly, and foreign trade uncertainties have released positive signals. Overall market expectationsThere has been improvement and improvement, and the positive factors for stable economic development have accumulated. First, the prosperity index shows that the annual economic growth in the second half of the year has stabilized. The National Information Center (SIC) macroeconomic prosperity model analysis system shows that the consistent composite index continues to fall, indicating that the short-term internal macroeconomic continues to overcome downward pressure; the leading composite index has stopped falling and rebounded, indicating that the economy is expected to gradually stabilize in the future.Since 2015, the system’s leading composite index has been leading the consensus composite index for about 7 months on average.The latest forecast of the leading composite index appeared in July 2017, reaching 103.67 points, and then continued to lower, and rebounded for 4 consecutive months after bottoming in October 2018, until it rose to 101 in February 2019.01 o’clock.The leading composite index stopped falling and rebounded, which indicates that the consensus composite index is expected to stabilize and recover after 7 months, indicating that the long-term economic operation in the second half of the year will gradually stabilize. The second is that the tax cuts exceeded expectations and stimulated the vitality of market players. This year’s active fiscal policy focuses on tax and fee reductions. Exceeding expected tax cuts will help boost market confidence and stimulate endogenous momentum in the real economy.This round of tax reduction was more than expected, without the need to expand the issuance of additional national debt, or to reduce government spending, increase the profits paid by state-owned enterprises to spend vacancies in spending also exceeded market expectations.The expected average budget growth rate is 39% of the expected domestic tax revenue in 四川耍耍网 2018.3%, reducing the budget tax rate has a significant economic stimulus effect on developing countries, and lowering will reduce the domestic use cost of manufactured products (product addition + conversion rate), and achieve demand expansion; and must also ease the operation of manufacturers to a certain extentPressure to increase marginal profit levels.According to the calculation of the State Information Center Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (SICGE), the existing tax rate of 16% in the manufacturing and other industries will be changed to 13%, and the current 10% tax rate in the transportation and construction industries will be restored to 9%.Drive GDP growth within one year.15 averages, employment increased by 0 correspondingly.2 averages. Third, the rebound in the stock market has boosted confidence in economic development. Since the beginning of this year, the stock market has picked up significantly each year.At present, the main conditions for the stock market to pick up are: First, from a fundamental perspective, the current stock index does not reflect the level of China’s economic development.Since the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy has contributed about 30% of the global economic increase, but China’s stock indexes have only about half of their historical highs, while European and American and even some Asian countries’ stock indexes have continuously hit record highs. The United States, Germany, India, and South Korea’s stock indexesIncreased by 90%, 52%, 84% and 25% from the historical highs before the financial crisis. Secondly, from the perspective of funds, funds such as pensions, insurance funds, and some foreign exchange have entered the market. Especially since last year, the RRR cut has released a large amount of liquidity. Funds will mainly enter the property market in the past. Today, the most severe policy in history has not been loosened.Under the circumstances, it will mainly enter the stock market. Third, from a policy perspective, monetary policy has shifted from “stable and neutral” to “moderately tight”. Increasing the proportion of direct financing requires activating the capital market, especially promoting structural reform of the financial supply side, and formulating institutional dividends by accelerating the reform of the capital market system. Fourth, from the external environment, external uncertainty is expected to decrease.The current gradual warming of the stock market is expected to boost confidence in economic development; the corporate financing environment has improved significantly, reducing excessive reliance on bank credit, and avoiding breakthroughs such as the crisis of equity pledges; establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system;It can solve the financing problems of technological innovation enterprises, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, and will cultivate outstanding entrepreneurs and middle class; enhance consumer confidence, effectively release the potential of domestic demand, and promote the formation of a strong domestic market.(Director: Zhang Yuxian, Deputy Director: Wang Yuanhong, Niu Li, Written by: Zhang Yuxian, Niu Li, Yan Min) The economic growth in the first quarter was mild and started at the beginning, the pressure on the production side is still increasing, and the new kinetic energy is growing faster; the demand side has been differentiated, and investment has stabilized and rebounded.Consumption demand is not strong, and external demand has declined. The economy in the first quarter will be moderate and gradual. First, industrial production slowed down and the service industry ran smoothly. Improved industrial production growth advantage.From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3%, an increase of 10 years average 1.Nine digits, down from 0 in December 2018.4 averages.There is contradictory downward pressure on industrial production, and it is expected to increase by 5 in the first quarter.About 6%.The main factors leading to the slowdown of industrial production are as follows: First, severe distortions in automobile production and sales dragged down industrial production, and automobile production and sales dropped by 14 from January to February.1% and 14.9%, the value added of the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 5.3%.Second, the sluggish external demand restrained the production of export-oriented industries, and the export delivery value of industrial enterprises increased from January to February.2%, ten-year average.3 averages.Thirdly, the production of high-tech manufacturing in January-February only increased by 6.4%, ten-year average.Five single ones, among which, the output of integrated circuits and smart phones fell by 15 respectively.9% and 12.4%; the export volume of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment decreased by 8 respectively.5% and 10.7%.However, we must also see that large-scale tax and fee reductions, vigorously improving the business environment and the rapid growth of new kinetic energy have strongly supported industrial production.Growth of strategic emerging industries from January to February10.1%, 3D printing equipment, graphene, new energy vehicles and other products output growth between 50% -200%. The service industry maintained stable operation.From January to February, the national service industry production index increased by 7.3%, continuing a good development trend, the service industry is expected to grow 7 in the first quarter.About 2%.First, the modern service industry has developed rapidly, and the information transmission, software and information technology service industry indexes, and leasing and business service industry indexes have increased by 26 respectively.5% and 7.9%.Second, the stock index has risen sharply, the transaction volume has increased significantly, and the securities, bond and currency markets are active. The financial industry is expected to become an important driving force for the growth of the service industry.The third is the rapid transformation and upgrading of the traditional service industry. The market for services such as health and old-age care, medical care, tourism and leisure has maintained a strong momentum.Fourth, the opening up of the service industry has been further expanded. The “Foreign Investment Law” has strengthened investor confidence and the attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign countries, and a new round of rapid development has been ushered in the financial and other service sectors.However, the sales of commercial housing have cooled down, real estate industry production may be involved, and the slowdown of industrial production will also affect the productive service industry. Second, investment demand is expected to improve, and consumer demand for foreign trade weakens. Investment stabilized and rebounded.From January to February, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 6.1%, an increase of 0 faster than expected last year.For two years, investment is expected to increase by 6 in the first quarter.About 3%.First, the number of proposed projects is growing even better.According to the data of the national investment project online approval supervision platform, the number of projects planned for construction nationwide increased by 15 in 2018.5%, the proposed project will be converted into an actual investment project in a few months, providing an alternative project reserve for the stable operation of the investment; the second is the gradual advancement of infrastructure investment.Local government special bonds were issued in advance, the capital ratio of infrastructure projects was reduced, the investment in the central budget was allocated early, and policies such as strengthening financial support for infrastructure projects that were in line with the planned shortfalls were supported to support a marked rebound in infrastructure investment.The third is to improve the business environment. In particular, small and micro-enterprise loans of large state-owned commercial banks should increase by more than 30%. The recovery of the securities and bond markets will increase the proportion of direct financing, and companies will increase technological transformation and substitution to promote stable investment in manufacturing.However, it is conducive to expanding and affecting the investment capacity and investment expectations of enterprises.With the fall in industrial product prices, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has been traced from 21% in 2017 to 10 in 2018.3%, especially -1 in November and December 2018.8% and -1.9% drop. Consumption growth forecast.From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2%, an increase of ten years average 1.Five fines, excluding price factors, actually increased 7.1%, zero for one year.8 averages.Automotive, real estate, online consumption and other major areas have cooled down. It is expected that the retail sales of consumer goods will increase in the first quarter.About 3%.First, the automotive market has clearly cooled down.January-February auto retail sales fell by 2.8%, ten-year average.Five single, drag-and-drop growth of total retail sales of consumer goods1.25 averages.Affected by this, the retail sales of petroleum and products increased by only 2.5%, six years ago.6 averages.Second, competition in the real estate market affects consumption of related products.From January to February, the retail sales of home appliances and furniture increased by 3.3% and 0.7%, at least 5 respectively.9 and 7.8 averages.Third, after years of rapid growth, the growth rate of online shopping slowed down, and the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 19 from January to February.5%, sixteen per year.1 average.However, the unemployment rate in developing countries is stable, and residents’ incomes have continued to increase. Expansion of consumption policies has helped boost consumption growth. At the same time, service consumption growth in line with the direction of resident consumption upgrade has been growing well. Foreign demand has weakened significantly.From January to February, exports in dollar terms fell by 4.6%, imports fell by 3.1%, at least 28 respectively.3 and 25.3 averages.The impact of the decline in external demand and trade uncertainties is evident. Exports denominated in US dollars and imports are expected to increase by 0 in the first quarter.2% and 0.About 5%.First, external demand has weakened significantly since the beginning.The Baltic Dry Bulk Index abruptly changed from 1270 points at the end of last year to more than 600 points in March this year, reflecting the changing trend of global economic activity and the continuing deterioration of the trading environment.The second is the influence of trade uncertainties.From January to February, China’s exports to the United States fell by 14.1%, imports from the United States fell by 35.1%, drag and drop to the overall export and import growth of 7.6 and 3.9 averages.The third is the re-signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the relevant regulations form barriers to trade, investment, and technology exchanges with North American countries.The fourth is the entry into force of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which aims to eliminate more than 95% of product tariffs, which will impact some overseas markets in Pacific Rim countries.However, uncertainties in foreign trade are gradually improving, and foreign trade companies are expected to improve. The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate after the last 4 months will help improve export competitiveness. Therefore, the import and export growth rate of countries along the “Belt and Road” is higher than the overallspeed. The third is the increase in consumer prices, and the prices of industrial producers have continued to weaken. The rise in consumer prices.From January to February, the CPI rose by 1.6%, an increase of 0 in two years.For six years, the CPI is expected to increase by one in the first quarter.About 7%.First, monetary policy remained tight and moderate, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced many times, currency liquidity tended to be loose, and the monetary and financial environment was conducive to the continued growth of consumer prices.Second, due to the Spring Festival, the prices of services such as travel and accommodation are relatively high.Third, the international oil price has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. The domestic price of gasoline and diesel has been raised four times, and energy prices have increased slightly.Fourth, the overall increase in food prices is not large, especially due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, pork demand has decreased significantly, and pork prices have fallen.Fifth, the tail-lifting factor was slightly reduced, and the CPI tail-lifting factor was zero in the first quarter.8. It goes down by 0 every year.3 averages. Industrial producer prices have continued to weaken.From January to February, PPI rose by 0.1%, a seasonal decline of 3%.Nine budgets, PPI is expected to rise slightly to zero in the first quarter.About 2%.The initial trend of lower industrial product prices: First, the marginal effect of price increases caused by supply-side structural reforms has diminished, leading to increased downward pressure on the economy, and the relationship between supply and demand for industrial products has become loose.Second, the prices of energy and raw materials have shown a downward trend. The prices of petroleum mining, coal processing, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemical raw materials have shown a downward trend.Third, the PPI tailspan factor was zero in the first quarter.8, a decrease of 2 over the same period last year.The seven integrations have become an important factor in the fall in industrial product prices. Since the beginning of this year, various policies have gradually come into effect, especially through counter-cyclical adjustments such as initial RRR cuts, tax cuts, and accelerated issuance of special bonds to gradually achieve a stable and open macroeconomic economy. GDP growth is expected in the first quarter.About 3%.Exceeded expectations for tax cuts and a marked recovery in the stock market, so future growth margins are expected to improve.But at the same time, the economic operation is still facing the deceleration of the world economy, the domestic automobile market has fallen sharply, the real estate market is subject to adjustment risks, and social liquidity easing effects have not been effectively replaced. National Information Center Economic Forecasting Department